“Quiet crew, 41 fouls, and the read held up, so stop texting me about it. Herro carried three fouls and still dropped 23 on Milwaukee's floor. Some guys hear the whistle and then hear the net, louder.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Mon, Oct 26, 2026 · Final
IND @ MIL Indiana at Milwaukee
THE CREWMarc Davis(54)chief·Gediminas Petraitis(15)·Julian Scott(new)
IND 102MIL 110
WHISTLE VOLUME
40.2
fouls per 100 possessions · −4.9 vs average
5,433rd busiest of 13,636 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Right direction
Read as quiet before tip-off; it came in −4.9 fouls per 100 vs average.
Fouls by quarter
IND MIL
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| IND | 19.3 → 18.5 | 22.9 → 17.5 |
| MIL | 19.8 → 21.7 | 23.3 → 20.8 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: IND 18, MIL 21.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
14 Q4 fouls vs 8.7 a quarter before
Louder late
14 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 0 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Tyler Herro (MIL)
3 fouls · 23 pts · 32 min
Key whistles
- Q1 7:44 Jay Huff (IND), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 6:15 Aaron Nesmith (IND), loose ball foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 1:48 Jay Huff (IND), offensive foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Light on traveling: 0.90× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.99×
- Shooting fouls0.99×
- Loose-ball fouls0.95×
- Take fouls1.05×
- Technical fouls1.03×
- Traveling0.90×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when IND have the ball.
When IND have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
IND draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 9th fewest. MIL commit fouls: 10th most; give up free throws: 7th most. Expected free throws for IND: 23.6.
When MIL have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
MIL draw fouls: 1st fewest; get to the line: 2nd fewest. IND commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 5th most. Expected free throws for MIL: 23.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
IND MIL
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- IND 104.1 · 9th fastest
- MIL 101.3 · 23rd fastest
- Expected tonight 102.7
- Actual 102.1 (−0.6 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (48th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
IND
23.6
free throws
MIL
23.6
free throws
Who’s out
IND
- Andrew Nembhard OUT
- Ivica Zubac OUT
MIL
Nobody listed
Foul-trouble watch, by team
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
IND
- Pascal SiakamElevated 1.5× typical
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Typical 1.0× typical
- Obi ToppinLow 0.5× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls 1st fewest in the league.
MIL
- Kasparas JakucionisVery high 2.3× typical
- Myles TurnerVery high 2.3× typical
- Ryan RollinsHigh 1.8× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls about league average.
Early foul trouble usually costs a player about 2 minutes. Bands compare with every regular on the nights we cover.
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 239.5 → 239.5 |
|---|---|
| Spread | MIL +4.5 → +3.5 |
| Moneyline | IND -175 → -155 · MIL +145 → +130 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.9 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −1.7 and −0.1 per 100 poss.
n = 0 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and +0.5 per 100 poss.
n = 0 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.9 points.
n = 0 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.