“I called this crew average. Average my a**. Fifty-seven fouls, Zion on five and still 17 points, and Denver took it 141-135 in their own building. I owe you a beer and a better read.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Final
NOP @ DEN New Orleans at Denver
THE CREWScott Foster(52)chief·John Butler(7)·Nate Cearley(new)
NOP 135DEN 141
- Total moved up 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
49.5
fouls per 100 possessions · +3.8 vs average
721st busiest of 13,623 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 42.0 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 49.5 (+7.5).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
NOP DEN
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| NOP | 21.7 → 25.0 | 23.6 → 25.8 |
| DEN | 20.3 → 24.5 | 25.3 → 34.2 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: NOP 30, DEN 39.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
15 Q4 fouls vs 10.0 a quarter before
Louder late
8 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 7 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Zion Williamson (NOP)
5 fouls · 17 pts · 33 min
Key whistles
- Q1 4:16 Jamal Murray (DEN), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 6:40 Bryce Hopkins (DEN), personal foul: 3rd foul before half
- OT 1:01 Nikola Jokic (DEN), personal take foul: 5th foul, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.02×
- Shooting fouls1.01×
- Loose-ball fouls1.00×
- Take fouls0.98×
- Technical fouls0.92×
- Traveling1.02×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
DEN should get to the line more: about 1.5 extra free throws.
When NOP have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
NOP draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 6th most. DEN commit fouls: 6th fewest; give up free throws: 6th fewest. Expected free throws for NOP: 27.4.
When DEN have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
DEN draw fouls: 2nd most; get to the line: 4th most. NOP commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for DEN: 28.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
NOP DEN
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- NOP 103.9 · 10th fastest
- DEN 101.9 · 21st fastest
- Expected tonight 102.9
- Actual 104.3 (+1.4 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (41th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
NOP
27.4
free throws
DEN
28.9
free throws
Who’s out
NOP
Nobody listed
DEN
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 237.5 → 239.5▲ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | DEN -11.5 → -11.5 |
| Moneyline | NOP +370 → +370 · DEN -485 → -485 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.2 per 100 poss.
n = 7 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 7 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 points.
n = 7 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.