“I called this crew quiet. Fifty-seven fouls later, I'm the one who got whistled. Toronto beat Washington 112-102 in Washington's building, and my read was s***.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
TOR @ WAS Toronto at Washington
THE CREWMarc Davis(54)chief·Jonathan Sterling(21)·Brent Haskill(new)
TOR 112WAS 102
WHISTLE VOLUME
51.9
fouls per 100 possessions · +5.9 vs average
337th busiest of 13,606 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 40.5 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 52.0 (+11.5).
The crew’s tendency alone read quiet.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
TOR WAS
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| TOR | 20.0 → 28.7 | 24.6 → 19.4 |
| WAS | 20.5 → 23.3 | 23.9 → 31.4 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: TOR 21, WAS 35.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
16 Q4 fouls vs 13.3 a quarter before
Louder late
10 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 6 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Kyshawn George (WAS)
5 fouls · 11 pts · 26 min
Key whistles
- Q1 2:13 Scottie Barnes (TOR), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 0:10 Immanuel Quickley (TOR), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 1:31 Immanuel Quickley (TOR), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.00×
- Shooting fouls0.99×
- Loose-ball fouls0.97×
- Take fouls1.03×
- Technical fouls1.03×
- Traveling0.99×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when TOR have the ball.
When TOR have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
TOR draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 10th most. WAS commit fouls: 7th most; give up free throws: 5th most. Expected free throws for TOR: 26.6.
When WAS have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
WAS draw fouls: 1st fewest; get to the line: 6th fewest. TOR commit fouls: 4th most; give up free throws: 3rd most. Expected free throws for WAS: 26.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
TOR WAS
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster111
- TOR 102.1 · 18th fastest
- WAS 104.4 · 7th fastest
- Expected tonight 103.3
- Actual 109.8 (+6.5 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (69th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
TOR
26.6
free throws
WAS
26.6
free throws
Who’s out
TOR
Nobody listed
WAS
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 235.5 → 236.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | WAS +4.5 → +9.5 |
| Moneyline | TOR -185 → -340 · WAS +154 → +270 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−1.0 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −1.8 and −0.2 per 100 poss.
n = 20 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.7 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.6 and +0.3 per 100 poss.
n = 20 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +1.0 points.
n = 20 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.