“Average whistle on Halloween, so the only scary thing tonight is Sacramento's free-throw count. Sabonis in early foul trouble is the trick, and the Kings have never been good at treats.”
MONTY SAYS
THE WHISTLE FORECAST
Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · before tip-off
SAC @ MEM Sacramento at Memphis
THE CREWJohn Goblechief·Eric Dalen·CJ Washington
- Total moved down 4
The price and the whistle
DraftKings
Market win chance
Whistle edge: none. Both teams should see the line about the same.
Win chance is the market’s, from the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed. Not our pick. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
CREW READ
AVERAGE
−0.1
fouls per 100 vs average
likely range −0.7 to +0.6
On the whistle
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
Both ends look alike: no free-throw edge either way.
When SAC have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
SAC draw fouls: 2nd fewest; get to the line: 8th fewest. MEM commit fouls: 6th most; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for SAC: 22.5.
When MEM have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
MEM draw fouls: 6th fewest; get to the line: 6th fewest. SAC commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 10th most. Expected free throws for MEM: 23.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
SAC MEM
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
SAC
22.5
free throws
FT quieter
Fouls average
MEM
23.4
free throws
FT average
Fouls quieter
Foul trouble
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
Domantas Sabonis
High
2.0× a typical starter · 23% chance
Riskier than 90% of regulars; 3rd highest of 32 on the slate.
Who’s out
SAC
- Keegan Murray OUT
MEM
- Ty Jerome DTD
The lines
DraftKings · open → latest
| Total | 234.5 → 230.5▼ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | MEM -10.5 → -8.5 |
| Moneyline | SAC +340 → +295 · MEM -440 → -375 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.1 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +0.6 per 100 poss.
n = 201 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.3 and +0.4 per 100 poss.
n = 201 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 201 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
A forecast from pre-game data. Not a pick. How we grade