“Halloween night, and this crew's whistle is quieter than a haunted house with no candy. Both teams foul like it's a chore they keep putting off. If Smith Jr. picks up two early, this crew finds its voice fast.”
MONTY SAYS
THE WHISTLE FORECAST
Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · before tip-off
OKC @ HOU Oklahoma City at Houston
THE CREWMark Lindsaychief·Aaron Smith·Sha'Rae Mitchell
- Fewest whistles expected on the slate
- Quietest crew on the slate
The price and the whistle
Moneyline not posted yet.
Whistle edge: HOU should get about 2.4 more free throws.
Win chance is the market’s, from the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed. Not our pick. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
CREW READ
AVERAGE
−0.4
fouls per 100 vs average
likely range −1.1 to +0.3
On the whistle
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
HOU should get to the line more: about 2.4 extra free throws.
When OKC have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
OKC draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 7th fewest. HOU commit fouls: 3rd fewest; give up free throws: 9th fewest. Expected free throws for OKC: 21.0.
When HOU have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
HOU draw fouls: 6th most; get to the line: mid-pack. OKC commit fouls: 4th fewest; give up free throws: 4th fewest. Expected free throws for HOU: 23.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
OKC HOU
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
OKC
21.0
free throws
FT quieter
Fouls quieter
HOU
23.4
free throws
FT average
Fouls quieter
Foul trouble
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
Jabari Smith Jr.
Typical
1.3× a typical starter · 14% chance
Riskier than 50% of regulars; 13th highest of 32 on the slate.
Who’s out
OKC
- Jalen Williams OUT
- Chet Holmgren OUT
HOU
- Alperen Sengun DTD
- Reed Sheppard DTD
The lines
Lines not posted yet. Books usually open the day before.
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.3 per 100 poss.
n = 87 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws±0.0 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 per 100 poss.
n = 87 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 points.
n = 87 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
A forecast from pre-game data. Not a pick. How we grade