“Average whistle on Halloween, and the only thing getting spooked tonight is Atlanta's free-throw line. New Orleans is trick-or-treating at the stripe like it owns the candy.”
MONTY SAYS
THE WHISTLE FORECAST
Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · before tip-off
ATL @ NOP Atlanta at New Orleans
THE CREWScott Fosterchief·Natalie Sago·Dannica Baroody
- Biggest free-throw gap: NOP +3.5
The price and the whistle
DraftKings
Market win chance
Whistle edge: NOP should get about 3.5 more free throws.
Win chance is the market’s, from the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed. Not our pick. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
CREW READ
AVERAGE
±0.0
fouls per 100 vs average
likely range −0.8 to +0.7
On the whistle
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
NOP should get to the line more: about 3.5 extra free throws.
When ATL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
ATL draw fouls: 3rd fewest; get to the line: 3rd fewest. NOP commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for ATL: 22.1.
When NOP have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
NOP draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 4th most. ATL commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for NOP: 25.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
ATL NOP
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
ATL
22.1
free throws
FT quieter
Fouls average
NOP
25.6
free throws
FT busier
Fouls quieter
Foul trouble
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
Jalen Johnson
High
1.8× a typical starter · 20% chance
Riskier than 83% of regulars; 4th highest of 32 on the slate.
Who’s out
ATL
Nobody listed
NOP
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → latest
| Total | 239.5 → 240.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | NOP +3.5 → +4.5 |
| Moneyline | ATL -155 → -180 · NOP +130 → +150 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls±0.0 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.7 per 100 poss.
n = 83 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.2 per 100 poss.
n = 83 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +1.0 points.
n = 83 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
A forecast from pre-game data. Not a pick. How we grade