“Crew read average, and average is what we got, so I'm not even mad. Forty-seven fouls, Amen Thompson with four of them and still 15 points, and Dallas closed it out at home like they own the building. They do. Houston just rented a seat.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · Final
HOU @ DAL Houston at Dallas
THE CREWZach Zarbachief·Ashley Moyer-Gleich·Robert Hussey
HOU 111DAL 116
- Total moved down 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
46.4
fouls per 100 possessions · +2.4 vs average
1,656th busiest of 13,665 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Right direction
Read as average before tip-off; it came in +2.4 fouls per 100 vs average.
Fouls by quarter
HOU DAL
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU | 18.9 → 22.2 | 21.3 → 31.9 |
| DAL | 18.9 → 24.3 | 22.5 → 27.3 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: HOU 33, DAL 27.
Foul-trouble watch: Amen Thompson (HOU)
4 fouls · 15 pts · 39 min
Key whistles
- Q2 0:29 Amen Thompson (HOU), personal foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q4 2:57 Amen Thompson (HOU), personal foul: close finish
- Q4 0:03 Fred VanVleet (HOU), personal take foul: 5th foul, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when HOU have the ball.
When HOU have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
HOU draw fouls: 9th most; get to the line: mid-pack. DAL commit fouls: 2nd fewest; give up free throws: 4th fewest. Expected free throws for HOU: 22.0.
When DAL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
DAL draw fouls: 6th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. HOU commit fouls: 3rd fewest; give up free throws: 7th fewest. Expected free throws for DAL: 22.3.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
HOU DAL
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
HOU
22.0
free throws
DAL
22.3
free throws
Who’s out
HOU
- Alperen Sengun OUT
- Reed Sheppard OUT
DAL
- Naji Marshall OUT
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 225.5 → 223.5▼ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -4.5 → +5.5 |
| Moneyline | HOU -175 → -198 · DAL +145 → +164 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.7 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and ±0.0 per 100 poss.
n = 124 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.3 and +0.5 per 100 poss.
n = 124 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.9 points.
n = 124 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade