“I called this crew busy, and they showed up quieter than a library on a Friday, 35 fouls total. Denver took 127-120 in Phoenix's building, and the only one who got hurt was me. Egg on my face, and I'm still cooking it.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · Final
DEN @ PHX Denver at Phoenix
THE CREWBrian Fortechief·Tyler Ford·Mousa Dagher
DEN 127PHX 120
- Total moved down 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
35.2
fouls per 100 possessions · −8.9 vs average
quieter than 67% of games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as busy before tip-off; it came in −8.9 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
DEN PHX
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN | 20.6 → 13.0 | 25.3 → 29.9 |
| PHX | 22.3 → 22.3 | 21.7 → 11.1 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DEN 30, PHX 11.
Foul-trouble watch: Devin Booker (PHX)
5 fouls · 20 pts · 39 min
Key whistles
- Q1 8:40 Devin Booker (PHX), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 5:20 Devin Booker (PHX), personal foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q4 0:00 Devin Booker (PHX), personal take foul: 5th foul, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
DEN should get to the line more: about 4.0 extra free throws.
When DEN have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
DEN draw fouls: 2nd most; get to the line: 3rd most. PHX commit fouls: 9th most; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for DEN: 25.4.
When PHX have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
PHX draw fouls: 5th fewest; get to the line: 3rd fewest. DEN commit fouls: 9th fewest; give up free throws: 6th fewest. Expected free throws for PHX: 21.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DEN PHX
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
DEN
25.4
free throws
PHX
21.4
free throws
Who’s out
DEN
- Bryce Hopkins OUT
PHX
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 233.5 → 231.5▼ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | PHX +2.5 → +4.5 |
| Moneyline | DEN -135 → -180 · PHX +114 → +150 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.9 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.2 and +1.5 per 100 poss.
n = 195 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.4 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 195 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.3 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.6 points.
n = 195 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade