“We called this crew average, and that read is in the trash. Sixty fouls later, Tatum had five and still scored 26 at home, and I'm the one who put my name on the card.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · Final
CHI @ BOS Chicago at Boston
THE CREWPat Fraherchief·Scott Twardoski·Nate Green
CHI 111BOS 125
- Total moved up 4
WHISTLE VOLUME
56.8
fouls per 100 possessions · +12.8 vs average
57th busiest of 13,661 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in +12.8 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
CHI BOS
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| CHI | 20.6 → 31.3 | 23.3 → 37.9 |
| BOS | 20.6 → 25.6 | 21.7 → 37.9 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: CHI 40, BOS 40.
Foul-trouble watch: Jayson Tatum (BOS)
5 fouls · 26 pts · 35 min
Key whistles
- Q1 5:36 Norman Powell (CHI), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 1:29 Jayson Tatum (BOS), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q4 5:01 Jayson Tatum (BOS), offensive foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
CHI should get to the line more: about 1.7 extra free throws.
When CHI have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
CHI draw fouls: 7th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. BOS commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 9th fewest. Expected free throws for CHI: 24.6.
When BOS have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
BOS draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 0th fewest. CHI commit fouls: 8th fewest; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for BOS: 22.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
CHI BOS
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
CHI
24.6
free throws
BOS
22.9
free throws
Who’s out
CHI
Nobody listed
BOS
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 232.5 → 236.5▲ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | BOS -11.5 → -14.5 |
| Moneyline | CHI +425 → +550 · BOS -575 → -800 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls±0.0 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +0.7 per 100 poss.
n = 171 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.2 per 100 poss.
n = 171 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 171 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade