“I called this crew average, and Memphis walked into Portland's building and took the game anyway. Avdija had one foul and 24 points, so my foul watch was a dud too. Wrong read, all mine. Put it on my tab and don't tell the commissioner.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · Final
MEM @ POR Memphis at Portland
THE CREWKevin Cutlerchief·Tyler Ford·Catherine Chang
MEM 124POR 103
- Busiest crew on the slate
- Whistle-bait matchup
WHISTLE VOLUME
35.5
fouls per 100 possessions · −8.9 vs average
quieter than 66% of games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −8.9 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
MEM POR
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM | 22.2 → 22.3 | 23.6 → 11.6 |
| POR | 20.4 → 13.3 | 25.0 → 24.7 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: MEM 12, POR 26.
Foul-trouble watch: Deni Avdija (POR)
1 fouls · 24 pts · 32 min
Key whistles
- Q2 8:42 Zach Edey (MEM), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q3 10:28 Zach Edey (MEM), loose ball foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q4 2:33 Cedric Coward (MEM), shooting foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
POR should get to the line more: about 2.0 extra free throws.
When MEM have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
MEM draw fouls: 8th fewest; get to the line: 9th fewest. POR commit fouls: 9th fewest; give up free throws: 10th most. Expected free throws for MEM: 24.4.
When POR have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
POR draw fouls: 5th most; get to the line: 8th most. MEM commit fouls: 7th most; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for POR: 26.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
MEM POR
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
MEM
24.4
free throws
POR
26.4
free throws
Who’s out
MEM
Nobody listed
POR
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 232.5 → 233.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | POR -7.5 → -7.5 |
| Moneyline | MEM +230 → +230 · POR -285 → -285 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.2 per 100 poss.
n = 0 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 0 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.8 points.
n = 0 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade