“I called this crew average, and I was wrong. Cleveland beat WSH 121-111 at home on 35 fouls, and somehow I'm the one who missed the whistle.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · Final
WAS @ CLE Washington at Cleveland
THE CREWJason Goldenbergchief·Mitchell Ervin·Simone Jelks
WAS 111CLE 121
- Busiest crew on the slate
- Biggest free-throw gap: CLE +3.4
WHISTLE VOLUME
36.0
fouls per 100 possessions · −8.8 vs average
quieter than 62% of games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −8.8 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
WAS CLE
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| WAS | 21.8 → 19.9 | 23.0 → 17.8 |
| CLE | 20.2 → 16.2 | 25.7 → 22.3 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: WAS 17, CLE 22.
Foul-trouble watch: Donovan Mitchell (CLE)
2 fouls · 19 pts · 31 min
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
CLE should get to the line more: about 3.4 extra free throws.
When WAS have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
WAS draw fouls: 2nd fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. CLE commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for WAS: 22.0.
When CLE have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
CLE draw fouls: 6th most; get to the line: 9th most. WAS commit fouls: 6th most; give up free throws: 9th most. Expected free throws for CLE: 25.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
WAS CLE
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
WAS
22.0
free throws
CLE
25.4
free throws
Who’s out
WAS
- Tre Johnson OUT
- Justin Champagnie OUT
CLE
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 239.5 → 240.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | CLE -10.5 → -9.5 |
| Moneyline | WAS +300 → +310 · CLE -380 → -395 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.7 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between ±0.0 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 88 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+1.1 per 100 poss
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.1 and +2.0 per 100 poss.
n = 88 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.5 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.4 and +1.3 points.
n = 88 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade