“Quiet crew, 39 fouls, and the scoreboard still did the loudest talking. Dallas 120, Oklahoma City 96, in Dallas's building. My read held up. Nobody needed a whistle to know that s*** was over by halftime.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · Final
OKC @ DAL Oklahoma City at Dallas
THE CREWJames Williamschief·Marat Kogut·Brandon Adair
OKC 96DAL 120
- Total moved down 3
WHISTLE VOLUME
39.3
fouls per 100 possessions · −5.6 vs average
6,144th busiest of 13,655 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Right direction
Read as quiet before tip-off; it came in −5.6 fouls per 100 vs average.
Fouls by quarter
OKC DAL
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| OKC | 19.0 → 19.2 | 20.0 → 23.2 |
| DAL | 18.6 → 20.1 | 22.8 → 15.1 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: OKC 23, DAL 15.
Foul-trouble watch: Kyrie Irving (DAL)
4 fouls · 15 pts · 27 min
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
DAL should get to the line more: about 2.9 extra free throws.
When OKC have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
OKC draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 5th fewest. DAL commit fouls: 2nd fewest; give up free throws: 4th fewest. Expected free throws for OKC: 19.8.
When DAL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
DAL draw fouls: 8th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. OKC commit fouls: 5th fewest; give up free throws: 8th fewest. Expected free throws for DAL: 22.7.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
OKC DAL
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
OKC
19.8
free throws
DAL
22.7
free throws
Who’s out
OKC
- Jalen Williams OUT
- Chet Holmgren OUT
- Alex Caruso OUT
DAL
- Naji Marshall OUT
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 230.5 → 227.5▼ 3 |
|---|---|
| Spread | DAL +5.5 → +4.5 |
| Moneyline | OKC -205 → -192 · DAL +170 → +160 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.7 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −1.4 and ±0.0 per 100 poss.
n = 177 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.2 and +0.6 per 100 poss.
n = 177 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.7 points.
n = 177 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade