“Called this crew average, and I still got humbled. Forty-one fouls, a quiet whistle, and Miami walked into Atlanta's building and won 129-117. I'm not reading another crew till I've had a sandwich and a nap.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · Final
MIA @ ATL Miami at Atlanta
THE CREWBen Taylorchief·J.B. DeRosa·Brandon Schwab
MIA 129ATL 117
- Total moved up 4
WHISTLE VOLUME
37.6
fouls per 100 possessions · −7.3 vs average
quieter than 54% of games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −7.3 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
MIA ATL
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| MIA | 19.5 → 15.4 | 23.9 → 20.9 |
| ATL | 20.6 → 22.2 | 21.4 → 12.9 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: MIA 23, ATL 14.
Foul-trouble watch: Jalen Johnson (ATL)
3 fouls · 12 pts · 36 min
Key whistles
- Q1 8:16 Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
MIA should get to the line more: about 3.1 extra free throws.
When MIA have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
MIA draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. ATL commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for MIA: 26.3.
When ATL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
ATL draw fouls: 3rd fewest; get to the line: 4th fewest. MIA commit fouls: 1st fewest; give up free throws: 3rd fewest. Expected free throws for ATL: 23.2.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
MIA ATL
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
MIA
26.3
free throws
ATL
23.2
free throws
Who’s out
MIA
Nobody listed
ATL
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 239.5 → 243.5▲ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | ATL -3.5 → -2.5 |
| Moneyline | MIA +136 → +120 · ATL -162 → -142 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.2 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +0.9 per 100 poss.
n = 149 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 149 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.1 points.
n = 149 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade