“Fifty-three fouls and I called this crew average. Average, my f***ing foot. The Warriors took Minnesota's building 119-114, and that one's on me.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · Final
GSW @ MIN Golden State at Minnesota
THE CREWCurtis Blairchief·Andy Nagy·Ashley Moyer-Gleich
GSW 119MIN 114
WHISTLE VOLUME
48.4
fouls per 100 possessions · +3.5 vs average
1,007th busiest of 13,650 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in +3.5 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
GSW MIN
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| GSW | 20.2 → 22.0 | 22.7 → 33.9 |
| MIN | 20.1 → 26.4 | 23.0 → 24.6 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: GSW 37, MIN 27.
Foul-trouble watch: Jaden McDaniels (MIN)
5 fouls · 19 pts · 35 min
Key whistles
- Q3 10:22 Brandin Podziemski (GSW), loose ball foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q3 0:28 Brandin Podziemski (GSW), personal foul: 5th foul
- Q4 1:07 Jaden McDaniels (MIN), personal foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
Both ends look alike: no free-throw edge either way.
When GSW have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
GSW draw fouls: 7th fewest; get to the line: 6th fewest. MIN commit fouls: 5th most; give up free throws: 10th most. Expected free throws for GSW: 24.8.
When MIN have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
MIN draw fouls: 8th most; get to the line: 10th most. GSW commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 7th fewest. Expected free throws for MIN: 25.3.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
GSW MIN
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
GSW
24.8
free throws
MIN
25.3
free throws
Who’s out
GSW
- Gui Santos OUT
MIN
- Anthony Edwards OUT
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 227.5 → 227.5 |
|---|---|
| Spread | MIN -6.5 → -3.5 |
| Moneyline | GSW +190 → +130 · MIN -230 → -155 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.5 per 100 poss.
n = 144 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.2 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.7 per 100 poss.
n = 144 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 points.
n = 144 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade