“I called this crew average and I was wrong, which is a s*** feeling for a guy with one good eye. Denver won 104-91 in New Orleans, Jokic had 21 on four fouls, and I'm still blaming the schedule.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · Final
DEN @ NOP Denver at New Orleans
THE CREWJacyn Goblechief·Justin Van Duyne·Jenna Schroeder
DEN 104NOP 91
- Total moved up 3
WHISTLE VOLUME
39.2
fouls per 100 possessions · −5.7 vs average
6,181st busiest of 13,650 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −5.7 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
DEN NOP
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN | 20.4 → 18.7 | 25.1 → 18.7 |
| NOP | 21.2 → 20.4 | 24.1 → 21.4 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DEN 19, NOP 22.
Foul-trouble watch: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
4 fouls · 21 pts · 34 min
Key whistles
- Q2 7:14 Jeremiah Fears (NOP), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q2 2:00 Nikola Jokic (DEN), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q3 1:04 Nikola Jokic (DEN), shooting foul: 4th foul in Q3
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when DEN have the ball.
When DEN have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
DEN draw fouls: 1st most; get to the line: 3rd most. NOP commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for DEN: 25.5.
When NOP have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
NOP draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 6th most. DEN commit fouls: 9th fewest; give up free throws: 5th fewest. Expected free throws for NOP: 24.8.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DEN NOP
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
What to expect
vs league avg
DEN
25.5
free throws
NOP
24.8
free throws
Who’s out
DEN
Nobody listed
NOP
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 238.5 → 241.5▲ 3 |
|---|---|
| Spread | NOP +4.5 → +4.5 |
| Moneyline | DEN -185 → -180 · NOP +154 → +150 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.2 and +0.2 per 100 poss.
n = 158 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws±0.0 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 per 100 poss.
n = 158 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 158 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. How we grade