“I called this crew average and I was wrong, so put it in the record books right next to my dignity. Forty fouls, a quiet whistle, and SA still ran Sacramento off the floor, 130 to 103, on their own home court.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Tue, Oct 27, 2026 · Final
SAC @ SAS Sacramento at San Antonio
THE CREWJames Capers(46)chief·Suyash Mehta(57)·Natalie Sago(10)
SAC 103SAS 130
- Quietest crew on the slate
- Biggest free-throw gap: SAS +4.1
- Total moved up 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
39.2
fouls per 100 possessions · −5.5 vs average
6,176th busiest of 13,642 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −5.5 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
SAC SAS
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| SAC | 20.9 → 21.8 | 21.3 → 12.9 |
| SAS | 19.6 → 17.4 | 24.7 → 18.4 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: SAC 13, SAS 19.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
11 Q4 fouls vs 9.7 a quarter before
Steady to the end
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 11 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Dylan Harper (SAS)
3 fouls · 13 pts · 30 min
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.00×
- Shooting fouls1.01×
- Loose-ball fouls1.05×
- Take fouls0.92×
- Technical fouls1.02×
- Traveling0.97×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
SAS should get to the line more: about 4.1 extra free throws.
When SAC have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
SAC draw fouls: 4th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. SAS commit fouls: 8th fewest; give up free throws: 1st fewest. Expected free throws for SAC: 21.4.
When SAS have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
SAS draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. SAC commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 8th most. Expected free throws for SAS: 25.5.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
SAC SAS
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- SAC 102.3 · 18th fastest
- SAS 102.8 · 15th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.5
- Actual 102.1 (−0.4 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (53th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
SAC
21.4
free throws
SAS
25.5
free throws
Who’s out
SAC
Nobody listed
SAS
Nobody listed
Foul-trouble watch, by team
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
SAC
- Domantas SabonisVery high 2.7× typical
- De'Andre HunterHigh 2.1× typical
- Darius Acuff Jr.Elevated 1.5× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls about league average.
SAS
- Stephon CastleVery high 2.4× typical
- Dylan HarperElevated 1.5× typical
- Keldon JohnsonElevated 1.5× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls 4th fewest in the league.
Early foul trouble usually costs a player about 2 minutes. Bands compare with every regular on the nights we cover.
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 230.5 → 232.5▲ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | SAS -18.5 → -19.5 |
| Moneyline | SAC +1000 → +1000 · SAS -1800 → -1800 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.2 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.5 per 100 poss.
n = 147 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws±0.0 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 per 100 poss.
n = 147 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 147 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.