“I called this crew average, and the read got whistled. Golden State took it 134-114 in Denver's building. Lendeborg scored 31 on two fouls, so the only foul trouble tonight was my read.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Mon, Oct 26, 2026 · Final
GSW @ DEN Golden State at Denver
THE CREWMarat Kogut(61)chief·J.T. Orr(27)·Tre Maddox(81)
GSW 134DEN 114
WHISTLE VOLUME
42.0
fouls per 100 possessions · −3.1 vs average
4,150th busiest of 13,640 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −3.1 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
GSW DEN
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| GSW | 21.6 → 24.2 | 21.9 → 21.2 |
| DEN | 20.2 → 17.7 | 24.6 → 23.9 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: GSW 21, DEN 23.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
10 Q4 fouls vs 10.0 a quarter before
Steady to the end
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 10 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW)
2 fouls · 31 pts · 31 min
Key whistles
- Q3 4:39 Gui Santos (GSW), shooting foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q3 3:26 Christian Braun (DEN), shooting foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q4 8:34 Christian Braun (DEN), offensive foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on technical fouls: 1.15× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.05×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls1.04×
- Take fouls1.08×
- Technical fouls1.15×
- Traveling1.01×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
DEN should get to the line more: about 1.9 extra free throws.
When GSW have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
GSW draw fouls: 8th fewest; get to the line: 7th fewest. DEN commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 9th fewest. Expected free throws for GSW: 21.7.
When DEN have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
DEN draw fouls: 1st most; get to the line: 3rd most. GSW commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 6th fewest. Expected free throws for DEN: 23.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
GSW DEN
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
96slower · faster107
- GSW 102.2 · 20th fastest
- DEN 102.5 · 17th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.3
- Actual 97.7 (−4.6 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: a touch faster (94th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
GSW
21.7
free throws
DEN
23.6
free throws
Who’s out
GSW
Nobody listed
DEN
Nobody listed
Foul-trouble watch, by team
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
GSW
- Yaxel LendeborgTypical 1.0× typical
- Gui SantosTypical 1.0× typical
- De'Anthony MeltonTypical 0.8× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls 1st most in the league.
DEN
Facing a team that draws fouls 8th fewest in the league.
Early foul trouble usually costs a player about 2 minutes. Bands compare with every regular on the nights we cover.
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 235.5 → 236.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | DEN -7.5 → -6.5 |
| Moneyline | GSW +235 → +220 · DEN -290 → -270 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.4 and +0.9 per 100 poss.
n = 217 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.1 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.9 per 100 poss.
n = 217 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 217 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.