“I called this crew average and Dallas still won 113-109 in Miami's building. Thirty-seven fouls, and Flagg dropped 29 on three of his own. My read was average. My mouth was not.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Mon, Oct 26, 2026 · Final
DAL @ MIA Dallas at Miami
THE CREWJosh Tiven(60)chief·Kevin Scott(56)·Chelisa Painter(new)
DAL 113MIA 109
- Total moved up 5
WHISTLE VOLUME
35.0
fouls per 100 possessions · −10.0 vs average
quieter than 68% of games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as average before tip-off; it came in −10.0 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
DAL MIA
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19.4 → 22.1 | 22.1 → 13.4 |
| MIA | 19.2 → 13.1 | 22.3 → 23.4 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DAL 14, MIA 25.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
9 Q4 fouls vs 8.0 a quarter before
Steady to the end
9 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 0 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Cooper Flagg (DAL)
3 fouls · 29 pts · 40 min
Key whistles
- Q3 1:54 Daniel Gafford (DAL), personal foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q4 4:52 Pelle Larsson (MIA), shooting foul: close finish
- Q4 4:08 Daniel Gafford (DAL), shooting foul: 5th foul, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.97×
- Shooting fouls0.99×
- Loose-ball fouls0.98×
- Take fouls1.01×
- Technical fouls0.99×
- Traveling0.93×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
Both ends look alike: no free-throw edge either way.
When DAL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
DAL draw fouls: 10th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. MIA commit fouls: 2nd fewest; give up free throws: 4th fewest. Expected free throws for DAL: 23.0.
When MIA have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
MIA draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. DAL commit fouls: 1st fewest; give up free throws: 2nd fewest. Expected free throws for MIA: 23.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DAL MIA
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster108
- DAL 104.9 · 5th fastest
- MIA 106.1 · 2nd fastest
- Expected tonight 105.5
- Actual 105.6 (+0.1 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: a touch slower (6th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
DAL
23.0
free throws
MIA
23.9
free throws
Who’s out
DAL
- Naji Marshall OUT
MIA
Nobody listed
Foul-trouble watch, by team
2 fouls in Q1 or 3 by half
DAL
- P.J. WashingtonElevated 1.5× typical
- Daniel GaffordElevated 1.5× typical
- Marcus SasserTypical 1.2× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls about league average.
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoVery high 2.9× typical
- Davion MitchellHigh 1.8× typical
- Bam AdebayoElevated 1.5× typical
Facing a team that draws fouls 10th fewest in the league.
Early foul trouble usually costs a player about 2 minutes. Bands compare with every regular on the nights we cover.
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 235.5 → 240.5▲ 5 |
|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -7.5 → -7.5 |
| Moneyline | DAL +235 → +220 · MIA -290 → -270 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and +0.2 per 100 poss.
n = 3 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and +0.4 per 100 poss.
n = 3 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.7 points.
n = 3 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
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Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.