“We called this crew busy. Forty-six fouls is an average night, so the only thing that got thrown out was my read. Edwards picked up four fouls and still dropped 26, and I'm the one who needs a timeout.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · Final
TOR @ MIN Toronto at Minnesota
THE CREWPat Fraher(49)chief·Michael Smith(63)·Ben Taylor(41)
TOR 94MIN 117
- Busiest crew on the slate
- Total moved down 3
WHISTLE VOLUME
44.6
fouls per 100 possessions · −0.6 vs average
2,505th busiest of 13,627 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Missed
Read as busy before tip-off; it came in −0.6 fouls per 100 vs average.
We print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
TOR MIN
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| TOR | 22.8 → 22.3 | 25.1 → 20.3 |
| MIN | 22.2 → 22.3 | 26.8 → 24.3 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: TOR 21, MIN 25.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
10 Q4 fouls vs 12.0 a quarter before
Quieter late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 10 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Anthony Edwards (MIN)
4 fouls · 26 pts · 28 min
Key whistles
- Q1 10:00 LaMelo Ball (MIN), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 11:12 LaMelo Ball (MIN), offensive foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q2 0:10 Anthony Edwards (MIN), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on offensive fouls and charges: 1.09× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.09×
- Shooting fouls1.01×
- Loose-ball fouls1.04×
- Take fouls1.04×
- Technical fouls1.01×
- Traveling1.00×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
MIN should get to the line more: about 1.7 extra free throws.
When TOR have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
TOR draw fouls: 10th most; get to the line: mid-pack. MIN commit fouls: 5th most; give up free throws: 9th most. Expected free throws for TOR: 25.9.
When MIN have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
MIN draw fouls: 8th most; get to the line: 9th most. TOR commit fouls: 3rd most; give up free throws: 2nd most. Expected free throws for MIN: 27.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
TOR MIN
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- TOR 102.5 · 18th fastest
- MIN 103.7 · 11th fastest
- Expected tonight 103.1
- Actual 103.1 (+0.0 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (49th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
TOR
25.9
free throws
MIN
27.6
free throws
Who’s out
TOR
Nobody listed
MIN
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 231.5 → 228.5▼ 3 |
|---|---|
| Spread | MIN -2.5 → -3.5 |
| Moneyline | TOR +110 → +140 · MIN -130 → -166 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+1.4 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.8 and +2.1 per 100 poss.
n = 222 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+1.0 per 100 poss
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.1 and +1.9 per 100 poss.
n = 222 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +1.0 points.
n = 222 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.