“Memphis walked into Sacramento's building and walked out with the win. The crew was average, just like we said. Sabonis got five fouls and fifteen points, which is the most expensive way to lose a seat I've ever seen.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · Final
MEM @ SAC Memphis at Sacramento
THE CREWMitchell Ervin(28)chief·Evan Scott(9)·John Butler(7)
MEM 123SAC 112
- Total moved down 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
47.2
fouls per 100 possessions · +2.0 vs average
1,388th busiest of 13,631 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Right direction
Read as average before tip-off; it came in +2.0 fouls per 100 vs average.
Fouls by quarter
MEM SAC
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM | 20.3 → 21.6 | 23.5 → 26.5 |
| SAC | 20.0 → 25.6 | 24.1 → 21.6 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: MEM 27, SAC 22.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
10 Q4 fouls vs 12.7 a quarter before
Quieter late
9 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 1 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Domantas Sabonis (SAC)
5 fouls · 15 pts · 35 min
Key whistles
- Q2 2:00 Domantas Sabonis (SAC), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q3 10:12 Domantas Sabonis (SAC), offensive foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q4 1:42 Domantas Sabonis (SAC), offensive foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.98×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls1.02×
- Take fouls0.99×
- Technical fouls1.03×
- Traveling1.03×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
Both ends look alike: no free-throw edge either way.
When MEM have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
MEM draw fouls: 7th fewest; get to the line: 8th fewest. SAC commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 10th most. Expected free throws for MEM: 23.9.
When SAC have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
SAC draw fouls: 2nd fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. MEM commit fouls: 10th most; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for SAC: 24.5.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
MEM SAC
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- MEM 104.6 · 6th fastest
- SAC 102.3 · 19th fastest
- Expected tonight 103.4
- Actual 101.8 (−1.6 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (65th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
MEM
23.9
free throws
SAC
24.5
free throws
Who’s out
MEM
Nobody listed
SAC
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 236.5 → 234.5▼ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | SAC +3.5 → +3.5 |
| Moneyline | MEM -162 → -180 · SAC +136 → +150 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.1 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.6 per 100 poss.
n = 163 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 163 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.1 points.
n = 163 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.