“We called this crew average. Average went out and handed out 44 fouls, and WSH walked into Chicago's building and won 124-120. That one's on me, loud and clear. Don't bring it up at the bar.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Final
WAS @ CHI Washington at Chicago
THE CREWGediminas Petraitis(15)chief·Justin Van Duyne(24)·Matt Kallio(13)
WAS 124CHI 120
WHISTLE VOLUME
40.3
fouls per 100 possessions · −5.4 vs average
5,341st busiest of 13,620 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 39.7 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 40.2 (+0.5).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
Fouls by quarter
WAS CHI
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| WAS | 20.6 → 20.1 | 22.2 → 25.6 |
| CHI | 19.1 → 20.1 | 24.4 → 27.5 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: WAS 28, CHI 30.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
12 Q4 fouls vs 10.0 a quarter before
Louder late
5 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 7 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Trae Young (WAS)
3 fouls · 25 pts · 34 min
Key whistles
- Q1 1:13 Alex Sarr (WAS), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 9:35 Bilal Coulibaly (WAS), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q2 2:45 Alex Sarr (WAS), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.03×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls0.99×
- Take fouls0.98×
- Technical fouls1.00×
- Traveling0.97×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
CHI should get to the line more: about 2.3 extra free throws.
When WAS have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
WAS draw fouls: 4th fewest; get to the line: 9th fewest. CHI commit fouls: 3rd fewest; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for WAS: 24.3.
When CHI have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
CHI draw fouls: 5th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. WAS commit fouls: 6th most; give up free throws: 8th most. Expected free throws for CHI: 26.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
WAS CHI
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster111
- WAS 104.8 · 5th fastest
- CHI 105.9 · 2nd fastest
- Expected tonight 105.3
- Actual 109.3 (+4.0 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (20th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
WAS
24.3
free throws
CHI
26.6
free throws
Who’s out
WAS
Nobody listed
CHI
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 243.5 → 244.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | CHI +1.5 → -1.5 |
| Moneyline | WAS -110 → +105 · CHI -110 → -125 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.4 per 100 poss.
n = 109 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.7 per 100 poss.
n = 109 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.8 points.
n = 109 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.