“I called this crew average and I was wrong. Forty-seven fouls, and I was reading the box score with my good eye closed. Embiid sat on five fouls and still dropped 28, so the only guy who didn't see that coming is me.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Final
MIL @ PHI Milwaukee at Philadelphia
THE CREWDedric Taylor(37)chief·Tyler Ford(4)·Robert Hussey(22)
MIL 116PHI 127
- Biggest free-throw gap: PHI +5.1
- Total moved up 4
WHISTLE VOLUME
42.7
fouls per 100 possessions · −3.0 vs average
3,661st busiest of 13,618 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 41.5 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 42.8 (+1.3).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
Fouls by quarter
MIL PHI
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| MIL | 21.4 → 22.4 | 22.2 → 26.1 |
| PHI | 20.1 → 20.4 | 25.6 → 30.1 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: MIL 28, PHI 34.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
11 Q4 fouls vs 12.0 a quarter before
Steady to the end
7 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 4 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Joel Embiid (PHI)
5 fouls · 28 pts · 36 min
Key whistles
- Q2 3:39 VJ Edgecombe (PHI), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q2 1:24 Myles Turner (MIL), offensive foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q4 1:28 Joel Embiid (PHI), offensive foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on traveling: 1.08× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.00×
- Shooting fouls1.01×
- Loose-ball fouls1.03×
- Take fouls1.03×
- Technical fouls1.00×
- Traveling1.08×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
PHI should get to the line more: about 5.1 extra free throws.
When MIL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
MIL draw fouls: 1st fewest; get to the line: 1st fewest. PHI commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for MIL: 23.8.
When PHI have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
PHI draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. MIL commit fouls: 9th most; give up free throws: 7th most. Expected free throws for PHI: 28.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
MIL PHI
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster112
- MIL 101 · 23rd fastest
- PHI 103 · 13th fastest
- Expected tonight 102
- Actual 110.2 (+8.2 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (56th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
MIL
23.8
free throws
PHI
28.9
free throws
Who’s out
MIL
Nobody listed
PHI
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 230.5 → 234.5▲ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | PHI -12.5 → -12.5 |
| Moneyline | MIL +455 → +470 · PHI -625 → -650 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.2 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 123 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.8 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.1 and +1.7 per 100 poss.
n = 123 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 123 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.