“I called this crew busy and they worked quieter than a library on Halloween, 42 fouls all night. Houston walked into Atlanta and won 121-114 anyway. My read is the one that got whistled.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Final
HOU @ ATL Houston at Atlanta
THE CREWCJ Washington(6)chief·Nick Buchert(32)·Andy Nagy(17)
HOU 121ATL 114
- Busiest crew on the slate
- Total moved down 3
WHISTLE VOLUME
41.1
fouls per 100 possessions · −4.6 vs average
4,760th busiest of 13,622 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 41.2 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 41.1 (−0.1).
The crew’s tendency alone read busy.
Fouls by quarter
HOU ATL
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU | 20.1 → 19.6 | 23.9 → 22.5 |
| ATL | 21.1 → 21.5 | 22.9 → 20.5 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: HOU 23, ATL 21.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
12 Q4 fouls vs 9.7 a quarter before
Louder late
4 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 8 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Dyson Daniels (ATL)
6 fouls · 18 pts · 29 min
Key whistles
- Q1 9:02 Reed Sheppard (HOU), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q4 0:21 Dyson Daniels (ATL), personal take foul: 5th foul, close finish
- Q4 0:18 Dyson Daniels (ATL), personal take foul: fouled out, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on technical fouls: 1.10× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.96×
- Shooting fouls1.02×
- Loose-ball fouls1.04×
- Take fouls1.00×
- Technical fouls1.10×
- Traveling1.04×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
HOU should get to the line more: about 1.0 extra free throws.
When HOU have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
HOU draw fouls: 8th most; get to the line: mid-pack. ATL commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for HOU: 24.4.
When ATL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
ATL draw fouls: 2nd fewest; get to the line: 4th fewest. HOU commit fouls: 4th fewest; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for ATL: 23.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
HOU ATL
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- HOU 100 · 27th fastest
- ATL 104.7 · 6th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.3
- Actual 102.2 (−0.1 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: a touch faster (95th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
HOU
24.4
free throws
ATL
23.4
free throws
Who’s out
HOU
Nobody listed
ATL
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 230.5 → 227.5▼ 3 |
|---|---|
| Spread | ATL -1.5 → +1.5 |
| Moneyline | HOU -105 → -112 · ATL -115 → -108 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.8 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.1 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 200 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+1.0 per 100 poss
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.1 and +1.9 per 100 poss.
n = 200 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.4 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.3 points.
n = 200 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.