“Quiet crew, 44 fouls, and I called it. Booker had one foul and still dropped 43 in Phoenix, so the only thing that got whistled tonight was the Warriors' defence. Don't thank me, I'm busy being right.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Final
GSW @ PHX Golden State at Phoenix
THE CREWDerrick Collins(76)chief·Sean Corbin(26)·Ray Acosta(16)
GSW 122PHX 131
- Quietest crew on the slate
- Total moved down 3
WHISTLE VOLUME
42.6
fouls per 100 possessions · −3.1 vs average
3,733rd busiest of 13,624 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 39.6 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 42.5 (+2.9).
The crew’s tendency alone read quiet.
Fouls by quarter
GSW PHX
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| GSW | 19.6 → 21.3 | 22.3 → 31.0 |
| PHX | 20.0 → 21.2 | 21.0 → 21.2 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: GSW 32, PHX 22.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
8 Q4 fouls vs 12.0 a quarter before
Quieter late
5 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 3 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Devin Booker (PHX)
1 fouls · 43 pts · 36 min
Key whistles
- Q1 1:57 Graham Ike (GSW), offensive foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 5:03 Graham Ike (GSW), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q3 5:11 Gui Santos (GSW), personal foul: 4th foul in Q3
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.98×
- Shooting fouls0.99×
- Loose-ball fouls0.94×
- Take fouls0.96×
- Technical fouls0.99×
- Traveling0.95×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
GSW should get to the line more: about 1.2 extra free throws.
When GSW have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
GSW draw fouls: 7th fewest; get to the line: 5th fewest. PHX commit fouls: 8th most; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for GSW: 23.0.
When PHX have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
PHX draw fouls: 6th fewest; get to the line: 2nd fewest. GSW commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 7th fewest. Expected free throws for PHX: 21.8.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
GSW PHX
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- GSW 102.1 · 19th fastest
- PHX 100.2 · 25th fastest
- Expected tonight 101.2
- Actual 103.4 (+2.2 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (40th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
GSW
23.0
free throws
PHX
21.8
free throws
Who’s out
GSW
Nobody listed
PHX
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 224.5 → 221.5▼ 3 |
|---|---|
| Spread | PHX -6.5 → -9.5 |
| Moneyline | GSW +170 → +320 · PHX -205 → -410 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−1.1 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −1.7 and −0.4 per 100 poss.
n = 214 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and +0.3 per 100 poss.
n = 214 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 214 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.