“I called this crew busy and I was dead wrong, so that one's on my tab. Forty-four fouls all night and the whistle stayed in its pocket like a guy who forgot his wallet. Portland still walked into Sacramento and won, and that's the one thing I didn't see coming.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
POR @ SAC Portland at Sacramento
THE CREWMichael Smith(63)chief·J.B. DeRosa(new)·Mousa Dagher(20)
POR 128SAC 120
- Busiest crew on the slate
WHISTLE VOLUME
41.0
fouls per 100 possessions · −5.0 vs average
4,803rd busiest of 13,614 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 42.0 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 41.1 (−0.9).
The crew’s tendency alone read busy.
Fouls by quarter
POR SAC
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| POR | 20.5 → 19.8 | 24.3 → 28.2 |
| SAC | 21.5 → 21.3 | 24.0 → 27.7 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: POR 30, SAC 30.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
8 Q4 fouls vs 12.0 a quarter before
Quieter late
7 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 1 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Scoot Henderson (POR)
5 fouls · 4 pts · 21 min
Key whistles
- Q1 10:15 Donovan Clingan (POR), loose ball foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 6:38 De'Andre Hunter (SAC), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q4 6:02 Scoot Henderson (POR), personal foul: 5th foul
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.08×
- Shooting fouls1.01×
- Loose-ball fouls1.03×
- Take fouls0.98×
- Technical fouls0.98×
- Traveling1.03×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when POR have the ball.
When POR have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
POR draw fouls: 4th most; get to the line: mid-pack. SAC commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: 10th most. Expected free throws for POR: 25.8.
When SAC have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
SAC draw fouls: 3rd fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. POR commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for SAC: 26.0.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
POR SAC
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster109
- POR 104 · 8th fastest
- SAC 101.9 · 20th fastest
- Expected tonight 103
- Actual 107.2 (+4.2 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: a touch faster (92th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
POR
25.8
free throws
SAC
26.0
free throws
Who’s out
POR
Nobody listed
SAC
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 232.5 → 231.5▼ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | SAC +6.5 → +9.5 |
| Moneyline | POR -230 → -470 · SAC +190 → +360 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+1.1 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.4 and +1.8 per 100 poss.
n = 192 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 192 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +1.0 points.
n = 192 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.