“Quiet crew, quiet whistle, and it held up. Bane took six fouls for five points, the worst exchange rate in Orlando. Minnesota walked into their building and won 115-93. Monty called the quiet. You're welcome.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
MIN @ ORL Minnesota at Orlando
THE CREWJosh Tiven(60)chief·Jason Goldenberg(1)·Jenna Schroeder(11)
MIN 115ORL 93
- Whistle-bait matchup
- Total moved down 3
WHISTLE VOLUME
44.6
fouls per 100 possessions · −1.4 vs average
2,480th busiest of 13,606 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 42.7 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 44.7 (+2.0).
The crew’s tendency alone read quiet.
Fouls by quarter
MIN ORL
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| MIN | 21.8 → 18.8 | 25.5 → 29.6 |
| ORL | 20.9 → 25.9 | 27.5 → 18.9 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: MIN 30, ORL 19.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
20 Q4 fouls vs 8.3 a quarter before
Louder late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 20 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Desmond Bane (ORL)
6 fouls · 5 pts · 27 min
Key whistles
- Q1 1:25 Franz Wagner (ORL), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q4 10:31 Desmond Bane (ORL), personal foul: fouled out
- Q4 3:31 Franz Wagner (ORL), flagrant foul type 1: fouled out
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.98×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls0.97×
- Take fouls1.06×
- Technical fouls1.06×
- Traveling1.00×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
ORL should get to the line more: about 1.8 extra free throws.
When MIN have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
MIN draw fouls: 8th most; get to the line: 8th most. ORL commit fouls: 5th most; give up free throws: 2nd most. Expected free throws for MIN: 25.8.
When ORL have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
ORL draw fouls: 1st most; get to the line: 1st most. MIN commit fouls: 3rd most; give up free throws: 6th most. Expected free throws for ORL: 27.6.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
MIN ORL
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- MIN 103.8 · 10th fastest
- ORL 103.7 · 12th fastest
- Expected tonight 103.8
- Actual 100.8 (−3.0 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (23th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
MIN
25.8
free throws
ORL
27.6
free throws
Who’s out
MIN
Nobody listed
ORL
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 237.5 → 234.5▼ 3 |
|---|---|
| Spread | ORL +1.5 → -1.5 |
| Moneyline | MIN -118 → +102 · ORL -102 → -122 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.7 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −1.4 and ±0.0 per 100 poss.
n = 157 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.2 per 100 poss.
n = 157 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.9 points.
n = 157 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.