“Fifty-five fouls and I still called this crew average. Curry on four fouls, 24 points, and Memphis walked into Golden State's building and took it. My one good eye just retired.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
MEM @ GSW Memphis at Golden State
THE CREWMark Lindsay(19)chief·Che Flores(new)·Brett Nansel(25)
MEM 111GSW 108
WHISTLE VOLUME
54.6
fouls per 100 possessions · +8.6 vs average
134th busiest of 13,614 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 39.4 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 54.6 (+15.2).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
MEM GSW
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM | 20.0 → 27.7 | 22.0 → 21.0 |
| GSW | 19.4 → 26.9 | 22.9 → 30.0 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: MEM 22, GSW 29.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
12 Q4 fouls vs 13.0 a quarter before
Steady to the end
12 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 0 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Stephen Curry (GSW)
4 fouls · 24 pts · 30 min
Key whistles
- Q1 10:33 Graham Ike (GSW), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 9:21 Stephen Curry (GSW), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q2 7:30 GG Jackson (MEM), personal foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Light on technical fouls: 0.89× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.94×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls0.98×
- Take fouls1.00×
- Technical fouls0.89×
- Traveling0.98×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when GSW have the ball.
When MEM have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
MEM draw fouls: 7th fewest; get to the line: 9th fewest. GSW commit fouls: 6th fewest; give up free throws: 7th fewest. Expected free throws for MEM: 23.0.
When GSW have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
GSW draw fouls: 6th fewest; get to the line: 4th fewest. MEM commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for GSW: 22.2.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
MEM GSW
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- MEM 104.6 · 6th fastest
- GSW 102.4 · 17th fastest
- Expected tonight 103.5
- Actual 100.8 (−2.7 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (43th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
MEM
23.0
free throws
GSW
22.2
free throws
Who’s out
MEM
Nobody listed
GSW
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 235.5 → 236.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | GSW -3.5 → -4.5 |
| Moneyline | MEM +130 → +136 · GSW -155 → -162 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.2 and +0.3 per 100 poss.
n = 104 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.3 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +1.3 per 100 poss.
n = 104 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +1.0 points.
n = 104 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.