“We called this crew quiet, and forty-eight fouls later that read is dead as s***. Castle took five fouls and still scored 15, so the only quiet thing last night was my ego.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
HOU @ SAS Houston at San Antonio
THE CREWKevin Cutler(53)chief·Brandon Adair(33)·Ashley Moyer-Gleich(14)
HOU 114SAS 110
- Quietest crew on the slate
WHISTLE VOLUME
47.4
fouls per 100 possessions · +1.4 vs average
1,295th busiest of 13,612 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 38.9 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 47.3 (+8.4).
The crew’s tendency alone read quiet.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
HOU SAS
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU | 19.4 → 22.3 | 21.0 → 31.4 |
| SAS | 19.5 → 25.0 | 23.5 → 24.0 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: HOU 31, SAS 25.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
13 Q4 fouls vs 11.3 a quarter before
Steady to the end
13 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 0 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Stephon Castle (SAS)
5 fouls · 15 pts · 33 min
Key whistles
- Q1 2:45 Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU), offensive foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 9:59 Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU), personal foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q4 2:42 Stephon Castle (SAS), shooting foul: 5th foul, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Light on technical fouls: 0.86× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.97×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls0.95×
- Take fouls0.98×
- Technical fouls0.86×
- Traveling1.02×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
SAS should get to the line more: about 3.7 extra free throws.
When HOU have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
HOU draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. SAS commit fouls: 10th fewest; give up free throws: 1st fewest. Expected free throws for HOU: 20.7.
When SAS have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
SAS draw fouls: 10th most; get to the line: mid-pack. HOU commit fouls: 3rd fewest; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for SAS: 24.4.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
HOU SAS
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- HOU 100.1 · 27th fastest
- SAS 102.5 · 15th fastest
- Expected tonight 101.3
- Actual 101.3 (+0.0 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (19th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
HOU
20.7
free throws
SAS
24.4
free throws
Who’s out
HOU
Nobody listed
SAS
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 225.5 → 224.5▼ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | SAS -5.5 → -4.5 |
| Moneyline | HOU +185 → +154 · SAS -225 → -185 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−1.5 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −2.3 and −0.8 per 100 poss.
n = 143 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.8 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.7 and +0.1 per 100 poss.
n = 143 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.4 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.3 and +0.5 points.
n = 143 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.