“I called this crew busy. Busy? Forty-seven fouls and it played like a library. Detroit won 128-111 in Miami, and my read went to the lost-and-found. My bad. Don't make me say it twice.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
DET @ MIA Detroit at Miami
THE CREWMarat Kogut(61)chief·Tony Brothers(55)·J.T. Orr(27)
DET 128MIA 111
- Biggest free-throw gap: MIA +3.8
WHISTLE VOLUME
43.9
fouls per 100 possessions · −2.1 vs average
2,856th busiest of 13,611 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 42.7 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 43.9 (+1.2).
The crew’s tendency alone read busy.
Fouls by quarter
DET MIA
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DET | 22.1 → 22.7 | 23.8 → 18.9 |
| MIA | 20.6 → 21.2 | 26.8 → 25.9 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DET 20, MIA 28.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
13 Q4 fouls vs 11.0 a quarter before
Louder late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 13 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Bam Adebayo (MIA)
6 fouls · 4 pts · 23 min
Key whistles
- Q1 1:13 Bam Adebayo (MIA), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 2:28 Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q3 7:10 Cade Cunningham (DET), personal foul: 4th foul in Q3
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on technical fouls: 1.14× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.04×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls1.00×
- Take fouls1.06×
- Technical fouls1.14×
- Traveling1.06×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
MIA should get to the line more: about 3.8 extra free throws.
When DET have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
DET draw fouls: 3rd most; get to the line: 3rd most. MIA commit fouls: 2nd fewest; give up free throws: 4th fewest. Expected free throws for DET: 25.2.
When MIA have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
MIA draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. DET commit fouls: 1st most; give up free throws: 1st most. Expected free throws for MIA: 29.0.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DET MIA
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster108
- DET 102.4 · 16th fastest
- MIA 106.2 · 1st fastest
- Expected tonight 104.3
- Actual 107 (+2.7 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (67th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
DET
25.2
free throws
MIA
29.0
free throws
Who’s out
DET
Nobody listed
MIA
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 234.5 → 235.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -1.5 → +2.5 |
| Moneyline | DET +105 → -130 · MIA -125 → +110 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.8 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Above average: 80% likely between +0.1 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 216 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.8 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.1 and +1.6 per 100 poss.
n = 216 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 216 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.