“Average crew, average whistle, and I called it, so I'm insufferable until Tuesday. Kyrie picked up six fouls and still dropped 24 in Indiana's building, which the stripes did not deserve. Dallas won 121-105 on the road, and the 47 fouls were just the appetizers.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
DAL @ IND Dallas at Indiana
THE CREWPat Fraher(49)chief·Brent Barnaky(59)·Nate Green(29)
DAL 121IND 105
- Total moved up 7
WHISTLE VOLUME
44.7
fouls per 100 possessions · −1.4 vs average
2,463rd busiest of 13,606 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 39.9 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 44.9 (+5.0).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
DAL IND
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19.3 → 26.4 | 25.4 → 22.5 |
| IND | 20.6 → 18.5 | 22.1 → 25.9 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DAL 23, IND 28.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
10 Q4 fouls vs 12.3 a quarter before
Quieter late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 10 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Kyrie Irving (DAL)
6 fouls · 24 pts · 25 min
Key whistles
- Q3 5:40 Kyrie Irving (DAL), personal foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q3 1:11 Marcus Sasser (DAL), shooting foul: 4th foul in Q3
- Q4 4:23 Kyrie Irving (DAL), personal foul: fouled out
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Light on traveling: 0.91× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.99×
- Shooting fouls1.02×
- Loose-ball fouls0.96×
- Take fouls0.98×
- Technical fouls1.02×
- Traveling0.91×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
DAL should get to the line more: about 2.0 extra free throws.
When DAL have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
DAL draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 7th most. IND commit fouls: 9th most; give up free throws: 7th most. Expected free throws for DAL: 25.9.
When IND have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
IND draw fouls: 10th fewest; get to the line: 10th fewest. DAL commit fouls: 1st fewest; give up free throws: 3rd fewest. Expected free throws for IND: 23.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DAL IND
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- DAL 105.2 · 4th fastest
- IND 103.8 · 11th fastest
- Expected tonight 104.5
- Actual 105.2 (+0.7 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (80th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
DAL
25.9
free throws
IND
23.9
free throws
Who’s out
DAL
Nobody listed
IND
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 234.5 → 241.5▲ 7 |
|---|---|
| Spread | IND -5.5 → -7.5 |
| Moneyline | DAL +170 → +215 · IND -205 → -265 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.3 per 100 poss.
n = 170 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.2 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +1.1 per 100 poss.
n = 170 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 170 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.