“I called this crew average and I was dead wrong. Atlanta walked into Charlotte's building, dropped 128 on them, and the whistle barely showed up with 39 fouls all night. Average should be ashamed of itself.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · Final
ATL @ CHA Atlanta at Charlotte
THE CREWEric Lewis(69)chief·Kevin Scott(56)·Pat O'Connell(new)
ATL 128CHA 81
WHISTLE VOLUME
37.9
fouls per 100 possessions · −8.2 vs average
quieter than 53% of games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 40.9 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 37.8 (−3.1).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
Fouls by quarter
ATL CHA
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL | 21.0 → 19.9 | 20.7 → 20.8 |
| CHA | 19.9 → 17.9 | 22.8 → 12.0 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: ATL 22, CHA 12.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
9 Q4 fouls vs 10.0 a quarter before
Steady to the end
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 9 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Brandon Miller (CHA)
2 fouls · 6 pts · 23 min
Key whistles
- Q1 2:37 Sion James (CHA), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q3 9:10 Sion James (CHA), loose ball foul: 4th foul in Q3
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on loose-ball fouls: 1.09× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.02×
- Shooting fouls1.02×
- Loose-ball fouls1.09×
- Take fouls0.96×
- Technical fouls1.00×
- Traveling0.94×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
CHA should get to the line more: about 1.0 extra free throws.
When ATL have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
ATL draw fouls: 4th fewest; get to the line: 5th fewest. CHA commit fouls: 8th fewest; give up free throws: 2nd fewest. Expected free throws for ATL: 21.9.
When CHA have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
CHA draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 3rd fewest. ATL commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for CHA: 22.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
ATL CHA
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- ATL 104.6 · 5th fastest
- CHA 101.5 · 22nd fastest
- Expected tonight 103
- Actual 103 (+0.0 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (42th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
ATL
21.9
free throws
CHA
22.9
free throws
Who’s out
ATL
Nobody listed
CHA
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 226.5 → 226.5 |
|---|---|
| Spread | CHA +2.5 → +2.5 |
| Moneyline | ATL -135 → -142 · CHA +114 → +120 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.2 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 48 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws±0.0 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +1.0 per 100 poss.
n = 48 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 48 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.