“Average crew, 45 fouls, and I called it, so stop texting me like I owe you money. McCain sat on foul-trouble watch with one whistle and four points, the calmest man in Oklahoma City. Thunder at home, and Denver's flight home was longer than the game.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Thu, Oct 22, 2026 · Final
DEN @ OKC Denver at Oklahoma City
THE CREWZach Zarba(35)chief·Sean Corbin(26)·Robert Hussey(22)
DEN 84OKC 96
- Total moved up 5
WHISTLE VOLUME
46.9
fouls per 100 possessions · +0.6 vs average
1,463rd busiest of 13,604 games since 2015
OUR CREW READ
Right direction
Read as average before tip-off; it came in +0.6 fouls per 100 vs average.
Fouls by quarter
DEN OKC
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN | 20.1 → 24.3 | 23.8 → 23.2 |
| OKC | 20.3 → 22.6 | 22.5 → 14.4 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DEN 22, OKC 14.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
11 Q4 fouls vs 11.0 a quarter before
Steady to the end
8 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 3 with it wider.
Foul-trouble watch: Jared McCain (OKC)
1 fouls · 4 pts · 18 min
BEFORE TIP-OFF
CREW READ
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.93×
- Shooting fouls0.99×
- Loose-ball fouls0.99×
- Take fouls1.03×
- Technical fouls0.93×
- Traveling0.94×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when DEN have the ball.
When DEN have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
DEN draw fouls: 2nd most; get to the line: 5th most. OKC commit fouls: 7th fewest; give up free throws: 9th fewest. Expected free throws for DEN: 22.5.
When OKC have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
OKC draw fouls: 10th most; get to the line: 10th fewest. DEN commit fouls: 5th fewest; give up free throws: 10th fewest. Expected free throws for OKC: 21.9.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DEN OKC
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
95slower · faster107
- DEN 102.3 · 17th fastest
- OKC 102.3 · 19th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.3
- Actual 96 (−6.3 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: a touch slower (5th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
DEN
22.5
free throws
OKC
21.9
free throws
Who’s out
DEN
Nobody listed
OKC
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 231.5 → 236.5▲ 5 |
|---|---|
| Spread | OKC -7.5 → -7.5 |
| Moneyline | DEN +225 → +270 · OKC -278 → -340 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.3 and +0.1 per 100 poss.
n = 122 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.3 and +0.5 per 100 poss.
n = 122 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +1.0 points.
n = 122 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.