“Clippers 121, Kings 96, and 47 fouls from a crew I called average, which is exactly what they were. Sacramento's defence was the only thing in that building that couldn't find a stop.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 21, 2026 · Final
SAC @ LAC Sacramento at LA Clippers
THE CREWMark Lindsay(19)chief·Brett Nansel(25)·Ray Acosta(16)
SAC 96LAC 121
- Total moved down 4
WHISTLE VOLUME
45.7
fouls per 100 possessions · +1.6 vs average
1,972nd busiest of 13,602 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 39.3 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 45.7 (+6.4).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
SAC LAC
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| SAC | 20.3 → 22.3 | 22.0 → 27.1 |
| LAC | 19.0 → 23.4 | 25.5 → 30.2 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: SAC 28, LAC 31.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
10 Q4 fouls vs 12.3 a quarter before
Quieter late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 10 with it wider.
Key whistles
- Q1 8:25 De'Andre Hunter (SAC), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 6:52 Isaiah Jackson (LAC), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 4:02 De'Andre Hunter (SAC), loose ball foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges0.94×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls0.98×
- Take fouls1.04×
- Technical fouls0.93×
- Traveling1.01×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
LAC should get to the line more: about 3.5 extra free throws.
When SAC have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
SAC draw fouls: 5th fewest; get to the line: mid-pack. LAC commit fouls: 10th fewest; give up free throws: 8th fewest. Expected free throws for SAC: 22.7.
When LAC have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
LAC draw fouls: 9th most; get to the line: 5th most. SAC commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for LAC: 26.2.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
SAC LAC
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- SAC 101.9 · 20th fastest
- LAC 99.3 · 29th fastest
- Expected tonight 100.6
- Actual 102.9 (+2.3 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (35th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
SAC
22.7
free throws
LAC
26.2
free throws
Who’s out
SAC
Nobody listed
LAC
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 230.5 → 226.5▼ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | LAC -4.5 → -5.5 |
| Moneyline | SAC +130 → +154 · LAC -155 → -185 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.3 and +0.1 per 100 poss.
n = 182 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.2 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +1.1 per 100 poss.
n = 182 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.8 points.
n = 182 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.