“I called this crew average and I was dead wrong. Portland dropped 124 on Phoenix's 83 in their own building, and the only thing I'm averaging tonight is my bad read. Don't tell the commissioner, but I'm eating that one.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 21, 2026 · Final
PHX @ POR Phoenix at Portland
THE CREWRodney Mott(51)chief·Mitchell Ervin(28)·John Butler(7)
PHX 83POR 124
- Biggest free-throw gap: POR +4.2
- Whistle-bait matchup
- Total moved down 4
WHISTLE VOLUME
35.0
fouls per 100 possessions · −9.1 vs average
quieter than 68% of games since 2015
OUR READ
Quieter than we said
Expected 42.6 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 35.0 (−7.6).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
PHX POR
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX | 22.3 → 17.5 | 22.2 → 23.7 |
| POR | 20.3 → 17.5 | 25.1 → 17.5 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: PHX 23, POR 18.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
7 Q4 fouls vs 9.3 a quarter before
Quieter late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 7 with it wider.
Key whistles
- Q1 6:08 Dillon Brooks (PHX), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 5:54 Toumani Camara (POR), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on traveling: 1.10× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.01×
- Shooting fouls1.00×
- Loose-ball fouls1.06×
- Take fouls1.05×
- Technical fouls1.00×
- Traveling1.10×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
POR should get to the line more: about 4.2 extra free throws.
When PHX have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
PHX draw fouls: 9th fewest; get to the line: 2nd fewest. POR commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for PHX: 21.6.
When POR have the ballBusy end
quietleague middlebusy
POR draw fouls: 3rd most; get to the line: 10th most. PHX commit fouls: 4th most; give up free throws: 9th most. Expected free throws for POR: 25.8.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
PHX POR
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- PHX 100.4 · 23rd fastest
- POR 104 · 8th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.2
- Actual 100 (−2.2 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (78th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
PHX
21.6
free throws
POR
25.8
free throws
Who’s out
PHX
Nobody listed
POR
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 236.5 → 232.5▼ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | POR -4.5 → -3.5 |
| Moneyline | PHX +142 → +130 · POR -170 → -155 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.7 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between ±0.0 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 201 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.7 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.2 and +1.6 per 100 poss.
n = 201 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line±0.0 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.9 and +0.9 points.
n = 201 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.