“Fifty fouls, and Indiana still walked out of New Orleans with a 123-120 win. I called this crew average, and they were exactly that, which is more than the whistle can say for itself.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 21, 2026 · Final
IND @ NOP Indiana at New Orleans
THE CREWEric Lewis(69)chief·Kevin Cutler(53)·Jason Goldenberg(1)
IND 123NOP 120
- Total moved down 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
46.9
fouls per 100 possessions · +2.9 vs average
1,452nd busiest of 13,597 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 41.3 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 46.9 (+5.6).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
IND NOP
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| IND | 21.1 → 24.3 | 22.4 → 27.2 |
| NOP | 20.2 → 22.6 | 25.5 → 34.8 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: IND 29, NOP 37.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
19 Q4 fouls vs 10.3 a quarter before
Louder late
19 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 0 with it wider.
Key whistles
- Q1 10:13 Jeremiah Fears (NOP), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 6:56 Jeremiah Fears (NOP), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q4 2:16 Ivica Zubac (IND), shooting foul: 5th foul, close finish
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
A league-average call mix: no call type stands out.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.02×
- Shooting fouls1.03×
- Loose-ball fouls1.04×
- Take fouls0.98×
- Technical fouls1.01×
- Traveling1.05×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
NOP should get to the line more: about 3.2 extra free throws.
When IND have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
IND draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 10th fewest. NOP commit fouls: mid-pack; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for IND: 23.9.
When NOP have the ballLeans busy
quietleague middlebusy
NOP draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 7th most. IND commit fouls: 9th most; give up free throws: 8th most. Expected free throws for NOP: 27.1.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
IND NOP
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster108
- IND 103.6 · 10th fastest
- NOP 103.7 · 9th fastest
- Expected tonight 103.7
- Actual 106.5 (+2.8 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (55th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
IND
23.9
free throws
NOP
27.1
free throws
Who’s out
IND
Nobody listed
NOP
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 240.5 → 238.5▼ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | NOP +4.5 → +2.5 |
| Moneyline | IND -175 → -142 · NOP +145 → +120 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.2 and +1.2 per 100 poss.
n = 168 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws+0.4 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.5 and +1.4 per 100 poss.
n = 168 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.8 and +0.9 points.
n = 168 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.