“Quiet crew, 43 fouls, exactly like I said. Houston hosted and put up 128 while Dallas's defence stayed in the parking lot, and it's still looking for a ride home.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 21, 2026 · Final
DAL @ HOU Dallas at Houston
THE CREWJames Williams(48)chief·Gediminas Petraitis(15)·Evan Scott(9)
DAL 110HOU 128
- Quietest crew on the slate
- Total moved up 4
WHISTLE VOLUME
42.5
fouls per 100 possessions · −1.6 vs average
3,760th busiest of 13,599 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 38.6 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 42.4 (+3.8).
The crew’s tendency alone read quiet.
Fouls by quarter
DAL HOU
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19.2 → 22.0 | 23.4 → 24.9 |
| HOU | 19.4 → 20.4 | 21.9 → 25.5 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: DAL 26, HOU 25.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
13 Q4 fouls vs 9.3 a quarter before
Louder late
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 13 with it wider.
Key whistles
- Q1 5:52 Fred VanVleet (HOU), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 0:48 Daniel Gafford (DAL), personal foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on technical fouls: 1.11× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.00×
- Shooting fouls0.98×
- Loose-ball fouls1.03×
- Take fouls0.96×
- Technical fouls1.11×
- Traveling0.96×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
DAL should get to the line more: about 2.9 extra free throws.
When DAL have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
DAL draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: 6th most. HOU commit fouls: 4th fewest; give up free throws: mid-pack. Expected free throws for DAL: 24.4.
When HOU have the ballQuiet end
quietleague middlebusy
HOU draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. DAL commit fouls: 1st fewest; give up free throws: 3rd fewest. Expected free throws for HOU: 21.5.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
DAL HOU
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster107
- DAL 105.2 · 4th fastest
- HOU 100.2 · 25th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.7
- Actual 101.2 (−1.5 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (72th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
DAL
24.4
free throws
HOU
21.5
free throws
Who’s out
DAL
Nobody listed
HOU
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 226.5 → 230.5▲ 4 |
|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -8.5 → -9.5 |
| Moneyline | DAL +270 → +330 · HOU -340 → -425 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.8 per 100 poss
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Below average: 80% likely between −1.4 and −0.1 per 100 poss.
n = 161 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.5 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and +0.4 per 100 poss.
n = 161 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line+0.1 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.7 and +1.0 points.
n = 161 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.