“I called this crew average. Sixty-three fouls later, "average" was a bedtime story I told myself. Toronto won 135-92 at home, and that miss is all mine, so keep laughing. I'd pay to watch it too.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Wed, Oct 21, 2026 · Final
CHI @ TOR Chicago at Toronto
THE CREWCourtney Kirkland(71)chief·Brandon Schwab(2)·Sha'Rae Mitchell(new)
CHI 92TOR 135
- Total moved up 2
WHISTLE VOLUME
56.0
fouls per 100 possessions · +12.0 vs average
74th busiest of 13,594 games since 2015
OUR READ
Busier than we said
Expected 39.2 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 56.0 (+16.8).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
One game swings about 5 per 100 around any read; we print the misses as loud as the hits.
Fouls by quarter
CHI TOR
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19.4 → 30.4 | 23.0 → 42.1 |
| TOR | 19.8 → 25.6 | 22.7 → 40.6 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: CHI 47, TOR 46.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
16 Q4 fouls vs 15.3 a quarter before
Steady to the end
0 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 16 with it wider.
Key whistles
- Q1 7:38 Norman Powell (CHI), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q1 0:49 Scottie Barnes (TOR), personal foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 0:47 Norman Powell (CHI), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Light on technical fouls: 0.85× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.00×
- Shooting fouls1.01×
- Loose-ball fouls1.01×
- Take fouls0.99×
- Technical fouls0.85×
- Traveling1.03×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
The busier end is when CHI have the ball.
When CHI have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
CHI draw fouls: 3rd fewest; get to the line: 7th fewest. TOR commit fouls: 5th most; give up free throws: 7th most. Expected free throws for CHI: 25.7.
When TOR have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
TOR draw fouls: mid-pack; get to the line: mid-pack. CHI commit fouls: 3rd fewest; give up free throws: 6th fewest. Expected free throws for TOR: 25.7.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
CHI TOR
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster114
- CHI 105.2 · 3rd fastest
- TOR 101.6 · 21st fastest
- Expected tonight 103.4
- Actual 112.5 (+9.1 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (44th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
CHI
25.7
free throws
TOR
25.7
free throws
Who’s out
CHI
Nobody listed
TOR
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 235.5 → 237.5▲ 2 |
|---|---|
| Spread | TOR -8.5 → -10.5 |
| Moneyline | CHI +275 → +360 · TOR -345 → -470 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls−0.6 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.4 and +0.2 per 100 poss.
n = 84 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.2 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.7 per 100 poss.
n = 84 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.7 points.
n = 84 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.