“I called that crew average. Forty-six fouls later, I'm the one who needs a whistle. OKC walked into SA's building and took the win anyway, which is more than my read did.”
MONTY, THE MORNING AFTER
HOW THE WHISTLE WENT
Tue, Oct 20, 2026 · Final
OKC @ SAS Oklahoma City at San Antonio
THE CREWBrian Forte(44)chief·J.T. Orr(27)·Ben Taylor(41)
OKC 116SAS 104
- Busiest crew on the slate
- Biggest free-throw gap: SAS +2.5
WHISTLE VOLUME
42.6
fouls per 100 possessions · +42.6 vs average
3,672nd busiest of 13,591 games since 2015
OUR READ
On the number
Expected 40.9 fouls per 100 for both teams; it came in at 42.6 (+1.7).
The crew’s tendency alone read average.
Fouls by quarter
OKC SAS
Expected vs actual
| Fouls / 100 | Free throws / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| OKC | 20.6 → 20.4 | 21.3 → 18.6 |
| SAS | 20.3 → 22.2 | 23.6 → 23.1 |
Expected before tip-off → what happened. Free throws: OKC 20, SAS 25.
Free throws: actual vs expected
Bar = free throws taken; tick = expected before tip-off.
The closer
11 Q4 fouls vs 11.7 a quarter before
Steady to the end
6 of the Q4 fouls came with the game within 10 points, 5 with it wider.
Key whistles
- Q1 5:39 Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC), shooting foul: 2nd foul in Q1
- Q2 2:15 Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC), shooting foul: 3rd foul before half
- Q3 11:20 Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC), personal foul: 4th foul in Q3
Picked by rule (foul trouble, close finish), not graded right or wrong.
BEFORE TIP-OFF
THE CREW’S TENDENCY
PENDING
The league posts referee assignments about 9 a.m. ET on game day. The crew read lands here as soon as it does.
What this crew calls
vs league, 1.00× = average
Heavy on technical fouls: 1.15× the league rate.
- Offensive fouls and charges1.05×
- Shooting fouls0.98×
- Loose-ball fouls1.04×
- Take fouls1.05×
- Technical fouls1.15×
- Traveling0.97×
Per game in this crew's games since 2022-23, against league average; each official shrunk toward league until the games pile up. Every call counts for all three officials.
The free-throw battle
how busy each end should be
SAS should get to the line more: about 2.5 extra free throws.
When OKC have the ballLeans quiet
quietleague middlebusy
OKC draw fouls: 9th most; get to the line: mid-pack. SAS commit fouls: 10th fewest; give up free throws: 2nd fewest. Expected free throws for OKC: 23.0.
When SAS have the ballMiddle of the road
quietleague middlebusy
SAS draw fouls: 7th most; get to the line: 9th most. OKC commit fouls: 7th fewest; give up free throws: 10th fewest. Expected free throws for SAS: 25.5.
League ranks this season, out of 30.
Where they stand
OKC SAS
Overall
When they defend
When they attack
League rank out of 30 this season, 1st = best for the team: most points scored, fewest allowed, fewest fouls and free throws given up, most fouls drawn and trips to the line. The right-hand number is how many places the leader is ahead.
Pace
possessions per 48 minutes
97slower · faster109
- OKC 102 · 19th fastest
- SAS 102.2 · 18th fastest
- Expected tonight 102.1
- Actual 107.9 (+5.8 vs expected)
Crew’s pace lean: neutral (85th percentile of crews on the slate). Crews do nudge pace, but only by about 0.7 possessions between the fastest and slowest tenth; the teams decide almost all of it.
What to expect
vs league avg
OKC
23.0
free throws
SAS
25.5
free throws
Who’s out
OKC
Nobody listed
SAS
Nobody listed
The lines
DraftKings · open → close
| Total | 228.5 → 229.5▲ 1 |
|---|---|
| Spread | SAS -1.5 → +1.5 |
| Moneyline | OKC +105 → -118 · SAS -125 → -102 |
For information only. Prices move; check your book. 19+ (21+ in most of the US).
The crew read in detail: fouls, free throws and points vs the line
Fouls+0.1 per 100 poss not clear
Personal fouls by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average, after allowing for the two teams.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −0.6 and +0.8 per 100 poss.
n = 215 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Free throws−0.1 per 100 poss not clear
Free-throw attempts by both teams per 100 possessions, against the league average.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.0 and +0.8 per 100 poss.
n = 215 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Points vs the line−0.2 points not clear
Final points minus the closing total in this crew's games. Near zero means the market already prices the crew.
Not clearly different from average: 80% likely between −1.1 and +0.6 points.
n = 215 games (fewest on the crew). Each dot is one in twenty likely outcomes.
Download the post-game card for sharing.
Counts and rates, not verdicts. One game is noise; we score the crew read by season: our track record.